Bot vs HODL Simulator.

Find out whether running a trading bot or simply holding ETH would have performed better over any period in history.

Do trading bots beat simply holding ETH?

What this simulator compares

Trading bots, grid bots and copy-trading services often advertise steady monthly returns. This tool sets a hypothetical bot return that you choose against the actual result of buying ETH and holding it over the same historical period, using public daily ETH-USD data. It shows whether the advertised figure would really have beaten doing nothing.

In strong uptrends, buy-and-hold is hard to beat because bots that take profits sell ETH on the way up. In sideways markets a grid strategy can earn more. Fees, slippage, funding costs and periods of downtime are not included unless you lower the bot return to account for them.

Questions to ask any bot or signal provider

Marketing returns are often cherry-picked. Before handing over funds or API keys, check:

Is there a verifiable, long track record, including losing periods, rather than screenshots?
Does the bot need withdrawal permission on your API key? It never should.
Who holds the funds, and what happens if the company disappears?
Are "guaranteed" or fixed daily returns promised? That is a hallmark of fraud.

How to use the simulator step by step

Choose a start and end date for the comparison, then enter the monthly or total return a bot or service claims. The simulator applies that claimed return to your starting amount over the same window and plots it against the value of simply buying ETH on the start date and holding it until the end date.

Run several windows rather than one. A bull-market year, a bear-market year and a sideways year will often give three very different answers. If a bot only beats holding in carefully chosen periods, the marketing is probably showing you those periods.

Costs that make bot returns smaller in practice

Advertised bot performance rarely includes every cost a real user pays. Reduce the return you enter to reflect:

Subscription or profit-share fees charged by the bot or signal provider.
Exchange trading fees on every buy and sell, which add up quickly for grid strategies that trade often.
Slippage and spreads, especially on smaller coins or during volatile moves.
Funding and liquidation risk if the strategy uses leverage or futures.
Taxes: frequent trading can turn long-term gains into short-term gains in many tax systems.

When a bot can make sense

Automated strategies are not automatically scams. Some holders use simple, transparent tools such as scheduled DCA purchases or limit orders they control on a reputable exchange. The key differences are that you keep custody, you can see every trade, the API key cannot withdraw funds, and nobody is promising a fixed return.

Why this matters

Many crypto scams start as an automated-trading pitch. Our scam guides cover fake dashboards, signal groups and unlock fees in detail. If a return looks too smooth to be real, it usually is.

Frequently asked questions

Are crypto trading bots profitable?

Some strategies profit in some market conditions, but many underperform simply holding after fees, especially during strong uptrends. Verified long-term track records are rare.

What is HODL?

HODL is crypto slang for buying and holding an asset long term instead of actively trading it.

Is it safe to give a bot my exchange API key?

Only with trade-only permissions, never withdrawal rights, and only to reputable software. Revoke keys you no longer use.

Does the simulator include bot fees?

No. Lower the hypothetical bot return to reflect subscription fees, trading fees and slippage.

Educational information only, not financial or tax advice. Results depend on the inputs and data sources described above; verify anything important with a primary source before acting.