{
 "title": "ETH price forecast tracker: analyst targets, revisions, 2025 scorecard, Polymarket odds and historical base rates",
 "url": "https://growyourethereum.com/data/ethereum-price-predictions",
 "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
 "creator": "GrowYourEthereum",
 "generated": "2026-10-22",
 "price_source": "Coinbase Exchange ETH-USD daily candles (UTC), 2016-05-18 to 2026-10-21",
 "last_close": {
  "date": "2026-10-21",
  "usd": 2471.78
 },
 "actual_2025_close": 2966.84,
 "high_2025": [
  "2025-08-24",
  4955.9
 ],
 "forecasts": [
  {
   "id": "vaneck-2024-12-13",
   "forecaster": "VanEck",
   "published": "2024-12-13",
   "horizon": "2025 cycle peak (Q1 2025)",
   "target_date": "2025-03-31",
   "target": 6000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "resolved",
   "eth_close_on_date": 3907.87,
   "implied_move_pct": 53.5,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "VanEck: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025 (Dec 13, 2024)",
   "source_url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-10-crypto-predictions-for-2025/",
   "note": "“Ethereum (ETH) trading above $6,000” at the first cycle peak, expected in Q1 2025.",
   "outcome": 4955.9,
   "outcome_label": "2025 high (Aug 24, intraday)",
   "outcome_vs_target_pct": -17.4
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2025-03-17",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2025-03-17",
   "horizon": "End of 2025",
   "target_date": "2025-12-31",
   "target": 4000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 10000,
   "status": "resolved",
   "eth_close_on_date": 1926.28,
   "implied_move_pct": 107.7,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "CNBC: Standard Chartered slashes ether price target (Mar 17, 2025)",
   "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/17/standard-chartered-slashes-ether-price-target-but-still-sees-a-turnaround-this-year.html",
   "note": "Cut from $10,000 (Geoff Kendrick).",
   "outcome": 2966.84,
   "outcome_label": "Dec 31, 2025 close",
   "outcome_vs_target_pct": -25.8
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2025-08-13",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2025-08-13",
   "horizon": "End of 2025",
   "target_date": "2025-12-31",
   "target": 7500,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 4000,
   "status": "resolved",
   "eth_close_on_date": 4751.46,
   "implied_move_pct": 57.8,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "Reuters: Standard Chartered lifts year-end ether forecast to $7,500 (Aug 13, 2025)",
   "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/standard-chartered-lifts-year-end-ether-forecast-7500-2025-08-13/",
   "note": "Raised from $4,000; end-2028 raised to $25,000 the same day.",
   "outcome": 2966.84,
   "outcome_label": "Dec 31, 2025 close",
   "outcome_vs_target_pct": -60.4
  },
  {
   "id": "citi-2025-09-15",
   "forecaster": "Citi",
   "published": "2025-09-15",
   "horizon": "End of 2025",
   "target_date": "2025-12-31",
   "target": 4300,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": 6400,
   "bear": 2200,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "resolved",
   "eth_close_on_date": 4524.56,
   "implied_move_pct": -5.0,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "CoinDesk: Citigroup sees ether at $4,300 by year-end (Sep 15, 2025)",
   "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/15/wall-street-bank-citigroup-sees-ether-falling-to-usd4-300-by-year-end",
   "note": "Base case; bull $6,400, bear $2,200.",
   "outcome": 2966.84,
   "outcome_label": "Dec 31, 2025 close",
   "outcome_vs_target_pct": -31.0
  },
  {
   "id": "lee-2025-10-14",
   "forecaster": "Tom Lee (Fundstrat / BitMine)",
   "published": "2025-10-14",
   "horizon": "End of 2025",
   "target_date": "2025-12-31",
   "target": 10000,
   "target_hi": 12000,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "resolved",
   "eth_close_on_date": 4126.39,
   "implied_move_pct": 142.3,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "Cointelegraph: Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes double down on $10K Ether this year (Oct 15, 2025)",
   "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-price-crypto-prediction-tom-lee-arthur-hayes",
   "note": "“Somewhere between $10,000 and $12,000” (Bankless podcast).",
   "outcome": 2966.84,
   "outcome_label": "Dec 31, 2025 close",
   "outcome_vs_target_pct": -70.3
  },
  {
   "id": "hayes-2025-10-14",
   "forecaster": "Arthur Hayes",
   "published": "2025-10-14",
   "horizon": "End of 2025",
   "target_date": "2025-12-31",
   "target": 10000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "resolved",
   "eth_close_on_date": 4126.39,
   "implied_move_pct": 142.3,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "Cointelegraph: Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes double down on $10K Ether this year (Oct 15, 2025)",
   "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-price-crypto-prediction-tom-lee-arthur-hayes",
   "note": "Kept his $10,000 year-end call (same podcast).",
   "outcome": 2966.84,
   "outcome_label": "Dec 31, 2025 close",
   "outcome_vs_target_pct": -70.3
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-01-12",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-01-12",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 7500,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 12000,
   "status": "superseded",
   "eth_close_on_date": 3091.94,
   "implied_move_pct": 142.6,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "The Block: Standard Chartered says 2026 will be the year of Ethereum (Jan 12, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-01-12-standard-chartered-says-2026-will-be-the-year-of-ethereum-385097",
   "note": "Cut from $12,000; also $15,000 (2027), $22,000 (2028), $30,000 (2029), new $40,000 (2030)."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-02-12",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-02-12",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 4000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 7500,
   "status": "superseded",
   "eth_close_on_date": 1946.11,
   "implied_move_pct": 105.5,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "CoinDesk: Standard Chartered sees ether at $1,400 before recovery, cuts end-2026 target (Feb 12, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/12/standard-chartered-sees-bitcoin-sliding-to-usd50-000-ether-to-usd1-400-before-recovery",
   "note": "Cut from $7,500; warned ETH could bottom near $1,400 first; end-2030 $40,000 unchanged."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-05-28",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-05-28",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 4000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 4000,
   "status": "current",
   "eth_close_on_date": 2006.61,
   "implied_move_pct": 99.3,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 61.8,
   "source": "CoinDesk: Standard Chartered backs $4,000 ether forecast (May 28, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/28/standard-chartered-backs-usd4-000-ether-as-retail-piles-into-the-sub-usd2-000-drop",
   "note": "Reaffirmed $4,000 (end-2026) and $40,000 (end-2030)."
  },
  {
   "id": "citi-2026-03-17",
   "forecaster": "Citi",
   "published": "2026-03-17",
   "horizon": "12 months",
   "target_date": "2027-03-17",
   "target": 3175,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": 1198,
   "previous": 4304,
   "status": "superseded",
   "eth_close_on_date": 2318.03,
   "implied_move_pct": 37.0,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "Reuters: Citigroup cuts 12-month bitcoin, ether targets (Mar 17, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citigroup-cuts-12-month-bitcoin-ether-targets-us-crypto-legislation-stalls-2026-03-17/",
   "note": "Cut from $4,304; recession case $1,198."
  },
  {
   "id": "citi-2026-07-01",
   "forecaster": "Citi",
   "published": "2026-07-01",
   "horizon": "12 months",
   "target_date": "2027-07-01",
   "target": 2240,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": 1094,
   "previous": 3175,
   "status": "superseded",
   "eth_close_on_date": 1607.64,
   "implied_move_pct": 39.3,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "CoinDesk: Citi slashes 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as ETF flows dry up (Jul 1, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/01/citi-slashes-12-month-bitcoin-ether-targets-as-etf-flows-dry-up",
   "note": "Cut from $3,175 as ETF flows turned negative; bear case $1,094."
  },
  {
   "id": "citi-2026-10-01",
   "forecaster": "Citi",
   "published": "2026-10-01",
   "horizon": "12 months",
   "target_date": "2027-10-01",
   "target": 3028,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 2240,
   "status": "current",
   "eth_close_on_date": 2705.5,
   "implied_move_pct": 11.9,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 22.5,
   "source": "FXStreet: Citi raises 12-month Ethereum forecast to $3,028, citing Reuters (Oct 1, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-ranges-as-citi-raises-target-to-3-028-202610011448",
   "note": "Raised from $2,240; expects about $5 billion of crypto ETF inflows over 12 months."
  },
  {
   "id": "lee-2026-10-09",
   "forecaster": "Tom Lee (Fundstrat / BitMine)",
   "published": "2026-10-09",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 5000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": 7500,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 10000,
   "status": "current",
   "eth_close_on_date": 2485.23,
   "implied_move_pct": 101.2,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 102.3,
   "source": "Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance: Tom Lee’s Ethereum year-end call (Oct 10, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tom-lee-ethereum-end-call-121659621.html",
   "note": "“Should top $5,000” by year-end (Token2049); about $7,500 if bitcoin reaches $100,000. A month earlier he called $10,000 “conservative”."
  },
  {
   "id": "hayes-2026-09",
   "forecaster": "Arthur Hayes",
   "published": "2026-09",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 10000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "reported",
   "eth_close_on_date": null,
   "implied_move_pct": null,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 304.6,
   "source": "Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance: Tom Lee’s Ethereum year-end call (Oct 10, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tom-lee-ethereum-end-call-121659621.html",
   "note": "Second-hand: cited in the Oct 10, 2026 report on Tom Lee; we could not find Hayes’ own dated post."
  },
  {
   "id": "bernstein-2026",
   "forecaster": "Bernstein",
   "published": "2026",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 5500,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "reported",
   "eth_close_on_date": null,
   "implied_move_pct": null,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 122.5,
   "source": "24/7 Wall St.: Ethereum price targets from Citi’s $3,028 to VanEck’s $6,000 (Oct 7, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/07/ethereum-price-targets-from-citis-3028-to-vanecks-6000-currently-eth-is-at-2617-which-target-makes-sense/",
   "note": "Second-hand only: listed by 24/7 Wall St. on Oct 7, 2026 without a note date; we found no primary Bernstein source."
  },
  {
   "id": "vaneck-2026",
   "forecaster": "VanEck",
   "published": "2026",
   "horizon": "End of 2026",
   "target_date": "2026-12-31",
   "target": 6000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "reported",
   "eth_close_on_date": null,
   "implied_move_pct": null,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 142.7,
   "source": "24/7 Wall St.: Ethereum price targets from Citi’s $3,028 to VanEck’s $6,000 (Oct 7, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/07/ethereum-price-targets-from-citis-3028-to-vanecks-6000-currently-eth-is-at-2617-which-target-makes-sense/",
   "note": "Second-hand only. VanEck’s own published $6,000 ETH figure (Dec 13, 2024) was for the 2025 cycle peak, not end-2026."
  },
  {
   "id": "vaneck-2024-06-05",
   "forecaster": "VanEck",
   "published": "2024-06-05",
   "horizon": "2030",
   "target_date": "2030-12-31",
   "target": 22000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": 154000,
   "bear": 360,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "long-term",
   "eth_close_on_date": 3866.57,
   "implied_move_pct": 469.0,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 790.0,
   "source": "VanEck: ETH 2030 Price Target (Jun 5, 2024)",
   "source_url": "https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-eth-2030-price-target/",
   "note": "Base case from a cash-flow model; bull $154,000, bear $360."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2025-08-13-2028",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2025-08-13",
   "horizon": "End of 2028",
   "target_date": "2028-12-31",
   "target": 25000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 7500,
   "status": "superseded",
   "eth_close_on_date": 4751.46,
   "implied_move_pct": 426.2,
   "needed_from_now_pct": null,
   "source": "Reuters: Standard Chartered lifts year-end ether forecast to $7,500 (Aug 13, 2025)",
   "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/standard-chartered-lifts-year-end-ether-forecast-7500-2025-08-13/",
   "note": "Raised from $7,500; cut to $22,000 on Jan 12, 2026."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-01-12-2027",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-01-12",
   "horizon": "End of 2027",
   "target_date": "2027-12-31",
   "target": 15000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "long-term",
   "eth_close_on_date": 3091.94,
   "implied_move_pct": 385.1,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 506.9,
   "source": "The Block: Standard Chartered says 2026 will be the year of Ethereum (Jan 12, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-01-12-standard-chartered-says-2026-will-be-the-year-of-ethereum-385097",
   "note": "Lowered from an earlier projection (The Block)."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-01-12-2028",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-01-12",
   "horizon": "End of 2028",
   "target_date": "2028-12-31",
   "target": 22000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 25000,
   "status": "long-term",
   "eth_close_on_date": 3091.94,
   "implied_move_pct": 611.5,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 790.0,
   "source": "The Block: Standard Chartered says 2026 will be the year of Ethereum (Jan 12, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-01-12-standard-chartered-says-2026-will-be-the-year-of-ethereum-385097",
   "note": "Lowered from $25,000."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-01-12-2029",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-01-12",
   "horizon": "End of 2029",
   "target_date": "2029-12-31",
   "target": 30000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": null,
   "status": "long-term",
   "eth_close_on_date": 3091.94,
   "implied_move_pct": 870.3,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 1113.7,
   "source": "The Block: Standard Chartered says 2026 will be the year of Ethereum (Jan 12, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-01-12-standard-chartered-says-2026-will-be-the-year-of-ethereum-385097",
   "note": "Raised (The Block)."
  },
  {
   "id": "sc-2026-05-28-2030",
   "forecaster": "Standard Chartered",
   "published": "2026-05-28",
   "horizon": "End of 2030",
   "target_date": "2030-12-31",
   "target": 40000,
   "target_hi": null,
   "bull": null,
   "bear": null,
   "previous": 40000,
   "status": "long-term",
   "eth_close_on_date": 2006.61,
   "implied_move_pct": 1893.4,
   "needed_from_now_pct": 1518.3,
   "source": "CoinDesk: Standard Chartered backs $4,000 ether forecast (May 28, 2026)",
   "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/28/standard-chartered-backs-usd4-000-ether-as-retail-piles-into-the-sub-usd2-000-drop",
   "note": "Introduced Jan 12, 2026; unchanged Feb 12; reaffirmed May 28, 2026."
  }
 ],
 "polymarket_snapshot": {
  "time": "2026-10-22T16:10:00Z",
  "event": "What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?",
  "resolution": "Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute high/low between each contract’s listing and Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET",
  "rows": [
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 500,
    "yes_pct": 1.4
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 600,
    "yes_pct": 0.8
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 700,
    "yes_pct": 1.4
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 800,
    "yes_pct": 1.4
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 1000,
    "yes_pct": 2.2
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 1250,
    "yes_pct": 8.5
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 1500,
    "yes_pct": 10.1
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 1750,
    "yes_pct": 15.5
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 2000,
    "yes_pct": 31.0
   },
   {
    "direction": "dip",
    "strike": 2250,
    "yes_pct": 67.5
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 3000,
    "yes_pct": 32.5
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 3500,
    "yes_pct": 14.0
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 4000,
    "yes_pct": 7.0
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 4500,
    "yes_pct": 4.2
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 5000,
    "yes_pct": 3.2
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 5500,
    "yes_pct": 2.9
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 6000,
    "yes_pct": 2.4
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 6500,
    "yes_pct": 2.2
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 7000,
    "yes_pct": 1.1
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 7500,
    "yes_pct": 1.1
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 8000,
    "yes_pct": 1.1
   },
   {
    "direction": "reach",
    "strike": 10000,
    "yes_pct": 0.9
   }
  ]
 },
 "base_rates": {
  "horizon_days": 71,
  "start_days_all": 3736,
  "start_days_since_2020": 2415,
  "columns": [
   "label",
   "target",
   "gain_needed_pct",
   "touch_all_pct",
   "close_above_all_pct",
   "touch_since_2020_pct",
   "close_above_since_2020_pct",
   "polymarket_yes_pct"
  ],
  "rows": [
   [
    "$3,000",
    3000,
    21.4,
    59.9,
    38.7,
    59.0,
    39.4,
    32.5
   ],
   [
    "$3,500",
    3500,
    41.6,
    40.4,
    25.7,
    37.8,
    22.9,
    14.0
   ],
   [
    "$4,000 (Standard Chartered)",
    4000,
    61.8,
    27.5,
    15.8,
    22.7,
    10.7,
    7.0
   ],
   [
    "$4,500",
    4500,
    82.1,
    19.6,
    10.6,
    13.8,
    5.5,
    4.2
   ],
   [
    "$5,000 (Tom Lee)",
    5000,
    102.3,
    13.7,
    7.9,
    7.7,
    3.6,
    3.2
   ],
   [
    "$5,500 (Bernstein, reported)",
    5500,
    122.5,
    9.8,
    7.4,
    4.7,
    3.3,
    2.9
   ],
   [
    "$6,000 (VanEck, reported)",
    6000,
    142.7,
    8.6,
    6.5,
    3.9,
    2.8,
    2.4
   ],
   [
    "$7,500",
    7500,
    203.4,
    6.2,
    4.4,
    2.0,
    0.7,
    1.1
   ],
   [
    "$10,000 (Hayes, reported)",
    10000,
    304.6,
    4.2,
    3.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.9
   ]
  ]
 },
 "required_cagr_to_2030": {
  "40000": 94.2,
  "22000": 68.4,
  "154000": 167.8,
  "360": -36.8,
  "years": 4.19
 }
}